Joseph Farsakh gives a clear-eyed account of what the Iran war has done to the Gulf’s ambitions in artificial intelligence. The damage is serious. Drones struck three AWS data centres across the UAE and Bahrain. AWS advised clients to consider moving workloads out of the region. Iran published a list of 29 technology sites it regarded as legitimate targets.
For a region that has sold itself to investors partly on stability, abundant energy and the ability to build at scale, this changes things. Projects will be reconsidered. Insurance will cost more. Boards will ask questions that weren’t on their due diligence lists six months ago.
But I’m not convinced that it changes the direction of travel.
The war has exposed weaknesses that were already there, particularly the concentration of critical infrastructure and the extent to which Gulf security still depends on decisions made elsewhere. Those weaknesses can’t now be treated as theoretical. The region will have to build differently, with greater redundancy and a wider range of partners.
That will take time, and it won’t be cheap. Some investment may be delayed. Some projects may move. Skilled workers and their families will make their own judgements about whether the region still offers the life and security they expected. It would be complacent to dismiss any of this.
Still, there’s a difference between a strategy being tested and a strategy being abandoned. Brookfield’s decision to proceed with its $20 billion data centre partnership with the Qatar Investment Authority is one indication that serious capital still sees a long-term case. One commitment can’t tell us how the whole market will respond, but it does suggest that the first instinct won’t always be to leave.
A thesis that only works in perfect conditions was never much of a thesis. Investors know that disruption is possible anywhere. The more revealing question is what happens after it arrives. Does a country have the money, institutions and political patience to learn from the shock and keep going?
That question sits close to the Human Code principle of prioritising resilience over speed. The Gulf’s governments still want to reduce their dependence on hydrocarbons, build industries that will employ a young population and secure a meaningful place in the AI economy. The war hasn’t removed any of those incentives. It has made the route towards them more complicated.
So I don’t read Farsakh’s analysis as a warning to give up on the Gulf. I read it as an account of the moment when the region’s technology ambitions became harder, more expensive and perhaps more realistic. What matters now is whether Gulf states use the shock to build the operational depth their original plans lacked.
If they do, this will eventually look less like the end of an ambition than the point at which it became a deeply serious one.
Nicole Junkermann is an international investor focused on technology, sports and media. She leads NJF Holdings, a global investment group, and its sports platform Gameday by NJF Holdings, which invests in sports leagues, media rights and technology-driven fan engagement. Her work in the sector focuses on building long-term sports infrastructure and expanding the commercial and global reach of professional leagues.