The US midterms are a reminder that political priorities can change much faster than businesses can be built. Long-term investors need the discipline and financial capacity to work across both timetables.
The morning after an election, investors face an understandable temptation to redraw their view of the world. Expectations shift around taxation, public spending and regulation, and businesses are assessed for their proximity to the incoming agenda. This weekâs US midterms will generate plenty of those calculations. Some will matter considerably to individual companies, particularly where government is a major customer or determines access to a market.
But the investment decisions that underpin economic progress operate on a different timetable. A medicine doesn’t move through clinical trials within a campaign season. Electricity networks can’t be rebuilt between elections, and a young technology company may need several changes of government before it becomes a profitable business. Investors committing capital to these activities have to assess what can survive those transitions, and how much it will cost to get there.
The mismatch is particularly visible in electricity infrastructure. In its Electricity 2026 report, the International Energy Agency estimates that planning, permitting and completing new grid infrastructure can take five to 15 years. Data centres can be built in one to three years. A government can encourage investment in computing capacity relatively quickly, but supplying the electricity may require decisions made several administrations earlier.
Life sciences present a similar challenge. The US Food and Drug Administrationâs account of clinical research describes successive stages of testing, with phase three studies typically lasting one to four years. That comes after discovery, preclinical work and earlier human trials. Capital must support the process while the evidence develops, with no guarantee that the treatment will succeed.
These timescales have consequences for how investments are financed. A project can address an urgent need and still struggle if its investors require liquidity before it reaches a meaningful milestone. Equally, an apparently attractive business can become uneconomic if delays force it to refinance repeatedly on worse terms. The duration of the capital matters almost as much as the amount.
At NJF Holdings, our interests across technology, life sciences, real estate and sports bring us into contact with businesses that develop at very different speeds. That makes me wary of treating âlong termâ as a sufficient explanation for an investment. Giving a company more time only helps if it uses that time productively.
Investors should be able to explain what they expect to learn before committing further funds. In life sciences, that might be evidence from a trial. In a technology business, it could be customer retention or proof that growth improves the economics. For a property development, planning progress and construction costs may determine whether the original assumptions still hold.
Those milestones give patience a commercial purpose. They also make it possible to distinguish a temporary setback from a fundamental weakness. A delayed approval may justify extending a timetable; evidence that customers won’t pay enough for a product requires a different response. Investors who describe every disappointment as short-term noise risk making patience an expensive habit.
Political risk belongs inside that analysis. A company dependent on a single subsidy, government contract or favourable regulatory interpretation needs to be valued with that dependence in mind. Public support can help establish an important industry, but investors should understand what happens if the support is reduced before the business can sustain itself.
The balance sheet is often where that exposure becomes most visible. Can the company absorb a slower sales cycle? Does it have enough cash to reach its next milestone if a decision is delayed? Would higher borrowing costs undermine the return? These questions are less exciting than predictions about an election, but they reveal how much freedom a management team will have when circumstances change.
Family offices and other investors with flexible holding periods can be useful partners here. They may be able to support development through periods when exits are difficult or sentiment has turned. But that flexibility has to be backed by reserves, portfolio discipline and a realistic understanding of their own liquidity needs. An investor can’t offer dependable capital while relying on a favourable market to fund the next commitment.
Governments have a responsibility too. Stable permitting processes, credible institutions and transparent regulation help investors price risk over the life of a project. Policy will change in a democracy, but avoidable uncertainty can raise financing costs and delay investments whose benefits would extend well beyond the current administration.
For investors, this week’s political developments are another set of conditions to assess. They may change a company’s costs, opportunities or route to market, sometimes enough to alter the investment case. The task is to make those adjustments while retaining a clear view of the years of work still required.
My conviction is that long-term capital earns its value through that combination of commitment and scrutiny. Businesses need owners who can stay through difficult periods, ask demanding questions and finance the next stage when the evidence supports it. That’s how an investment horizon becomes something more useful than a statement of intent.
Nicole Junkermann is an international investor and entrepreneur, and the founder of NJF Holdings, a London-based private investment firm with interests across venture capital, private equity, real estate, and sports and media. Through its venture arm, NJF Capital, she backs businesses in technology, artificial intelligence, healthcare and life sciences. Her investment approach centres on long-term capital, working closely with founders and supporting innovations that improve human capability and create lasting commercial value.